Trump Fears Protest Power. Here’s Why He Can’t Stop It

Donald Trump just threatened to defund universities that allow student protests. Let's call this what it is: a desperate attempt to silence the next generation of changemakers.

But here's the good news: He's doing this because protest works.

History shows that when enough people take action, they win. And we don't need everyone – just a committed, organized minority. That's where you come in.

3.5%: The Power of Small but Mighty Movements

Political scientist Erica Chenoweth studied over 300 uprisings across history and found something remarkable: When just 3.5% of the population actively joins a movement, her research showed, change usually becomes inevitable. From the BBC:

Looking at hundreds of campaigns over the last century, Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.

“There weren’t any campaigns that had failed after they had achieved 3.5% participation during a peak event,” Chenoweth said.

That's not a huge majority. That's not waiting for "everyone else" to wake up. That's a small, determined group of people who can decide enough is enough.

And here's what matters: In Chenoweth's extensive data set, nearly every nonviolent movement that reached that 3.5% threshold succeeded – whether toppling dictators, dismantling apartheid, or securing fundamental rights.

Note: This doesn't mean it's an absolute rule in every case. In 2020, Chenoweth issued a cautionary update that 3.5% is no guarantee of change. She pointed to mass protests in Bahrain that involved 6% of the population but didn't succeed.

“New research suggests that one nonviolent movement, Bahrain in 2011-2014, appears to have decisively failed despite achieving over 6% popular participation at its peak,” wrote Chenoweth. “This suggests that there has been at least one exception to the 3.5% rule, and that the rule is a tendency, rather than a law.”

Fair enough – but the evidence still strongly suggests that mass, nonviolent protests have a powerful effect. That's why Trump wants to ban them.

Trump is trying to look strong by making threats but, in reality, he's anxious. He's afraid of momentum. Because when protests reach critical mass, they can create a cascade effect:

✅ People witness others taking action and feel emboldened to join.

✅ Protests normalize action, transforming passive supporters into active participants.

✅ Institutions, businesses, and even authorities begin to switch sides.

This isn't theory. This is the proven mechanics of successful movements.

Your Actions Ripple Further Than You Imagine

In January, I wrote about the power of Social Proof, a rule of persuasion that says people take their cues from what they see other people doing.

Likewise, social change spreads exponentially when people see it happening. When you protest, speak out, or take a stand, you create permission for others to follow. Consider these examples:

When students launched the Civil Rights sit-ins, communities mobilized.
When young people marched after Parkland, the national conversation shifted.
When millions demonstrated for Black Lives Matter, policy changes followed.

Visible action breeds more action. This explains why Trump wants to preemptively crush protests – particularly on college campuses. If he can intimidate people into silence through threats, he maintains control.

Trump Can't Stop the Tipping Point

Trump can threaten funding cuts. He can promise punishment. But he can't change the reality: Once enough people mobilize, the dynamic fundamentally shifts.

As Chenoweth's research shows, nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns. Why? Because they're more accessible – they don't exclude people who fear bloodshed, they don't require physical strength, and they're easier to discuss openly. This accessibility is what allows movements to reach that critical 3.5% threshold.

We're at that crucial moment where individual actions begin compounding. You don't need permission to stand up. Your action IS the permission others are waiting for.

And when enough of us join together? History promises a better outcome.

Let's test the theory by making Trump's worst fears become reality. Stand up and join the peaceful protest movement to save the United States from dictatorship. Our whole democracy is on the line, so forget 3.5%. Let's get that number to 10% or higher!

Please share this post with anyone who needs to know about the 3.5% rule.

Note: This post has been updated to reflect Chenoweth's update on her research.